Two peer-reviewed book series published by Springer
		HESP	ESDP

First Sustainability Transition and
Sustainable Peace Workshop
UNAM/CRIM and AFES-PRESS

Towards a Fourth Sustainability Revolution and
Sustainable Peace:

Visions and Strategies for Long Term Transformative Change to
Sustainable Development in the 21st Century

10-13 September 2012, in Morelos, Mexico

The Organizers

The workshop has been prepared by the two project directors and their respective institutions: a) El Centro Regional de Investigaciones Multidisciplinarias (CRIM) in Cuernavaca, Morelos, a centre of the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) and Peace Research and European Security Studies (AFES-PRESS), in Mosbach, Germany.
The Regional Center of Multidisciplinary Research (CRIM) is an integrated part of the Coordination of the Humanities within the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM). The objective of CRIM is to conduct research on social problems of Mexico and its regions through a research strategy which combines the perspectives of the social sciences with those of other disciplines. CRIM contributes also to other objectives of UNAM though a) teaching and diffusion of culture and participating directly in programs of university and postgraduate studies; b) a wide diffusion and dissemination of the results of its researches and c) spreading knowledge in those scientific areas linked to its academic profile. Its substantive tasks are to contribute to scientific and social understanding. Thus, the CRIM is to advance its goal as an innovative and progressive academic institution. The Center works on multidisciplinary research projects, where teaching and the diffusion of knowledge are systemically incorporated: CRIM’s goal is to achieve academic leadership while being always open to the needs and demands for knowledge coming from the society.			Peace Research and European Security Studies (AFES-PRESS) was founded in September 1987 as an international scientific society. AFES-PRESS maintains contacts to scientific research institutes in all parts of the globe. Its major aims are: a) Scientific research projects: since 1987on international relations, peace research, on security policy, since 1995 on environment, energy and climate policies and since 2001 on the global rethinking of security and since 2011 on sustainability transitions; b) Organization of scientific conferences and workshops; c) Publication of the research results as AFES-PRESS Reports (non-profit publishers); d) support of international scientific co-operation and of young scientists. Its scientific board members are: PD Dr. habil. Hans Günter Brauch, chairman (political science, international relations), Mosbach, Germany; Prof. Dr. John Grin, deputy chairman, University of Amsterdam (physicist, political scientist), Netherlands; Assoc. Prof. Dr. Czeslaw Mesjasz, Economic University of Krakow (physicist, economist), Poland. Scientific Advisory Board is co-chaired by Ambassador Dr. Jonathan Dean (USA) and Prof. Dr. Úrsula Oswald Spring (Mexico). In its research AFES-PRESS has focused during the Cold War on: Armaments dynamics and East-West-conflict in the nuclear age; Institutions, procedures and instruments of a preventive arms control and since the end of the East-West Conflict on global environment policy and its linkage to security policy, on the reconceptualization of security and since 2011 on sustainability transition. .

Goals of this First Workshop in Morelos, Mexico

This workshop combines from a multidisciplinary and international perspective four scientific issue areas and scientific discourses:

• Research on the consequences of policies on global environmental and climate change that resulted in a deficient implementation of agreements (Kyoto Protocol of UNFCCC) and of non-binding policy declarations of the G8 and G20 and the postponement of legally binding agreements at COP15 (Copenhagen, 2009), COP16 (Cancun, 2010) and COP17 (Durban, 2011) what represents a ‘Climate Paradox’. This will increase the probability of a dangerous and catastrophic climate change during the 21st century. To avoid its projected consequences in science, and in the societal, economic and political realms, major changes in science, society, the business community and in politics are necessary. This has inspired several scientists to call for a new ‘scientific revolution’ (Clark/Crutzen/Schellnhuber 2004), a new ‘Social Contract for Sustainability’ (WBGU 2011) or a ‘fourth sustainability revolution’ (Oswald Spring/Brauch 2011).
• Research that addresses the consequences of global environmental change and climate change on international peace and security (Brauch/Oswald Spring et al. 2008, 2009, 2011), and the linkages between climate change and security (Scheffran et al. 2012).
• A third emergent research field in the social sciences deals with theoretical and empirical approaches and strategies of a long-term transformative change towards a sustainable development (e.g. Grin/Rotmans/Schot 2010).
• In the context of these discourses a sustainable peace will also be addressed from the per-spective of human security (De Rivera 2008; Brauch/Oswald Spring 2009).

Based on the discussion of these multiple complex issue linkages new research questions and research fields are to be developed for a multidisciplinary oriented and policy relevant inter-national social sciences and also for peace research.

In the aftermath of the first UN Conference on the Environment in Stockholm (1972) a major expert conference took place from 8 to 12 October 1974 in Cocoyoc in the Mexican state of Morelos that was co-chaired by Maurice Strong (UNEP) and Gamani Corea (UNCTAD) and that proposed a new international economic order.

The two vice chairmen were Wilbert K. Chagula, Minister for economic affairs in Tanzania, and the Mexican sociologist Rodolfo Stavenhagen. This workshop will take place in the same state in Mexico in the context of the global economic and financial crises and an emerging environ-mental crisis. In a dinner speech during this workshop Prof. Dr. Rodolfo Stavenhagen will draw lessons from ignoring the proposals of Cocoyoc (1974) for strategies for a long-term transformative change towards sustainable development in the 21st century.

Research Questions

Major Research Questions and Goals

This workshop will bring together leading scientists from Mexico, Canada, Germany, The Netherlands, Poland and Australia from the natural and social sciences and the humanities to discuss new questions on the linkages among four issue areas. During the first session Prof. Dr. Úrsula Oswald Spring (CRIM/UNAM, Cuernavaca, Mexico) and Adj. Prof. Dr. Hans Günter Brauch (Free University of Berlin and AFES-PRESS, Mosbach) will introduce into these questions:

1. Which conceptual linkages exist between the discussion on sustainable development (ecology) and a sustainable peace (peace research)?
2. Which possible consequences of non-action and of a postponement of decisions can be foreseen in the area of global environmental change (water, soil, climate change, biodi-versity) on the area of international peace and security – from the perspective of states and international organizations as well as of human security?
3. May policies of ecological non-action and of the postponement of decisions that increases the intensity of anthropogenic climate-induced natural hazards and disasters that may become for billions of people an issue of survival become a serious threat to international peace and security during the 21st century?
4. May anticipative learning and a forward looking public and global discourse on the necessary long term transformative change contribute to a sustainable development and counter new threats for international peace and security in a preventive manner?

After this conceptual introduction, Prof. Dr. John Grin, Amsterdam University (Physicist, political scientist, peace researcher) will introduce a theoretical perspective on the transition toward sustainable development (Grin/Rotmans/Schot 2010 that is based on a decade of work by the Dutch Knowledge Networks on Systems Innovation of which he has been a co-chair for several years. The results are published in the Routledge Studies in Sustainability Transitions.

5. Since the 1970s the awareness on societal and environmental risks, on climate change and on the limits of western modernization paths has grown, what has resulted in the insight of many scientists that our societal and economic system requires a fundamental transformation, where the goal of a sustainable development offers only one alter-native that challenges the political and economic thinking and action in the context of business-as-usual strategies.
6. Based on theoretical reflection and empirical case studies the KSI-team addressed two key questions on the nature of the transition and on the possibilities to influence this transition from the vantage point of sustainable development.
7. The work of the KSI-team is based on the assumption that both the academic and the political discussion have so far not addressed the question of the dynamics and of the governance of a long-term transformative change. The KSI-team has analyzed this transition from three perspectives of complex systems analysis, a socio-technical and a governance perspective.
8. From the perspective of peace research and sustainable peace this workshop addresses the question as to how during this long-term transformative change violent systems change could be avoided and how this transition towards a sustainable development may contribute to a sustainable peace.

During the second day four sessions address four key changes towards a “Fourth Sustainability Revolution” (Oswald Spring/Brauch 2011) or for a new “Social Contract for Sustainability” (WBGU 2011) from the perspective of political science (Dr. Steven Bauer, former scientific assistant of WBGU), of geography (Prof. Dr. Karen O’Brien, University of Oslo, Norway) and political geography (Prof. Dr. Simon Dalby, CIGI chair in the political economy of climate change at the Balsillie School of International Affairs in Waterloo, Ontario, Canada), of anthropology (Prof. Dr. Lourdes Arizpe Schlosser, UNAM/ CRIM, Cuernavaca, Mexico) and of political science (Prof. Dr. Roeland J. in ’t Veld, Open University, The Netherlands; Tilburg University, Tilburg; author of IASS, Potsdam) the necessity of a fundamental transformation of culture, of the scientific worldview, of the mindset of decision makers in politics and in the business community and on the forms of governance. Here the following questions will be addressed:

9. Why is a ‘way of life’ and culture that is based on a waste of scarce non-renewable re-sources not sustainable and which changes in the production and consumption patterns and in the way of life are needed in the context of a transformation to sustainability?
10. Which fundamental change in the worldview through a scientific revolution are necessary to initiate a long-term transformative change towards sustainability in research
11. Why does the persistence of the mindset in the framework of business-as-usual strategies obstruct the necessary visions, perspectives and strategies of a long-term transformation of the state, the economy and society? Which changes in the mindset of political and economic elites are needed, to overcome the interest-driven obstacles against a long-term transformative change toward sustainability?
12. Why are the dominant structures and political decision-making processes unable to launch and implements steps towards a fourth sustainability revolution and which changes in politics and in action beyond the state would be needed to initiate such a long term transformative change?
13. From the vantage point of peace research this leads to the question which changes in culture, in worldview, mindsets and in governance are needed to avoid that during this fourth sustainability revolution the goal of a sustainable peace is endangered?

During the eighth session two natural scientists that are working as social scientists and peace researchers (Prof. Dr. Czeslaw Mesjasz, Cracow Economic University and Prof. Dr. Jürgen Scheffran, University Hamburg, Institute of Geography and Excellence Cluster on Climate Research) will address theoretical questions of a long-term transformative change:

14. for linear, non-linear, chaotic or Cascadian systems changes in the natural and human systems during the Anthropocene era of earth history;
15. from a multidisciplinary approach from systems theory and complexity research link-ages between a fourth sustainability revolution and a sustainable peace.

During the third day in sessions 9 and 10 several case studies will address two different approaches of bottom-up including local participative processes and top-down by long-term oriented (inter)national planning and innovation processes, e.g. in the energy (increase in energy efficiency) and production sector (decarbonization, dematerialization, recycling of re-sources). In the context of three case studies on a participative transformation process from bottom-up these questions will be addressed:

16. Based on an empirical case in the Netherlands Prof. Dr. John Grin will address key research questions of the approach taken by the KSI Network.
17. Dr. Cecilia Conde, Centre for Atmospheric Research (CCA) of UNAM in Mexico City, will present examples of a participative adaptation approach to climate change involving the most affected people in the agricultural sector.
18. Prof. Dr. Úrsula Oswald Spring, UNAM CRIM will present an ongoing research project of the Mexican Network on Water Research (RETAC) on a River Basin in Morelos and discuss for several project components concrete goals of a fourth sustainability revolution.
19. Dr. Serena Eréndira Serrano Oswald, Postdoctoral fellow, UNAM CRIM will discuss a case study that has undergone important transformations following mass migration and woodcarving in Oaxaca and discuss the potential of using Social Representations Theory to address the interrelation of social, economic, political, cultural and environmental aspects.

During this session it will be discussed whether and to which extent the theoretical approach developed in the Netherlands may be applied to other cases for a participative transition towards sustainable development and which lessons may be drawn for a policy oriented scientific research.
During the ninth session additional top-down case studies will be offered, e.g. on the energy sector that has significantly contributed to anthropogenic climate change, with regard to com-prehensile strategies for enhancing energy efficiency, increase resource productivity and on a multinational increase of resource productivity in the context of multinational projects for transforming the energy sector through a transition from fossil to renewable energy sources. In this session the following problem areas and questions will be examined:

20. Dr. Karlson Hargroves, a project director of the Natural Edge Project who teaches at the universities of Adelaide and Curtin in Australia and a co-author of the report Factor 5 will address the question of a transformation of the global economy by an 80% improvement of resource efficiency.
21. Adj. Prof. Dr. Hans Guenter Brauch will review the goals of the Roadmap of the EU Commission for a reduction of GHG 80% until 2050 and discuss which contribution the Mediterranean Solar Plan (MSP) of the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM) and the DESERTEC industrial initiative may contribute toward the EU roadmap. He will discuss to which extent a similar project by Canada, the USA and Mexico (NAFTA) he calls NAFSOLTEC could be conceived to satisfy the electricity needs of NAFTA countries with solar energy produced in the deserts of the Mexico and the USA.

These case studies deliberate aspects of a sustainability revolution, which are projected to reduce GHG and resource needs by 2050 for the OECD countries in Europe, North Africa and in the Asia-Pacific by 80%. Given the projected energy needs and of declining fossil energy reserves a transformation strategy in the energy sector may contribute to avoid future resource conflicts on oil and gas and thus contribute to the realization of a sustainable peace.

The final session that will be moderated by Prof. Dr. Margarita Velázquez Gutierréz, director of CRIM/UNAM, will address visions and strategies of a fourth sustainability revolution:

• In the first roundtable Prof. Dr. Lourdes Arizpe Schlosser, NN (WBGU), Prof. Dr. Roeland J. in 't Veld will discuss on the effects of strategies of business-as-usual and of the transi-tion to sustainability and on the necessity of a fundamental change of culture, of the scientific worldview, of political and economic mindsets and of governance in the framework of the third (20th century) and the proposed fourth technical revolution (21st century).
• In second roundtable Prof. Dr. Czeslaw Mesjasz, Prof. Dr. Jürgen Scheffran, Prof. Dr. Eduardo Viola and Adj. Prof. Dr. Hans Günter Brauch will examined the research needs on the linkage between a long term transformation toward sustainability and a sustainable peace.

In conclusion Prof. Dr. Ursula Oswald Spring will summarize the key research results.

State of Research and the Originality of the Selected Approach

This workshop builds on the Global Human and Environmental Security Handbook for the Anthropocene (GHESHA) that was co-edited by Brauch, Oswald Spring, Mesjasz, Grin et al. (2008, 2009, 2011) and that offered a state-of the art assessment of the global discourse on environmental change and security with 270 peer-reviewed book chapters written by 300 authors from 100 countries. The workshop takes up the conceptual considerations by Oswald Spring and Brauch in the three concluding chapters.

These considerations were partly inspired by discussions by natural scientists in Berlin-Dahlem (2003) on a second scientific revolutions (Clark/Crutzen/Schellnhuber 2004), of the International Programme on the Geo- and Biosphere (IGBP, Steffen 2004), by discussions in the framework of the Earth Systems Science Partnership (ESSP, Lemans et al 2011), of a WBGU-Report (2011) and by publications of des IASS (Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies, Potsdam).

This workshop brings leading scientists together that are involved in several international discourses with the goal to discuss the new linkages between peace research, earth systems science, the research on climate change and security and the new transformation research to-wards sustainable development to develop new multidisciplinary research questions. The organizers expect that this workshop may inspire new multidisciplinary research projects in Europe, North and Latin America that may also inspire the international peace research community to address the new research questions on basic problems of peace in the Anthropocene.

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The Workshop is Sponsored by the
German Foundation on Peace Research (DSF) and
UNAM/CRIM, Cuernavaca, Mor., Mexico